Humans have relied on coastal resources for centuries. However, current growth in population and increased accessibility of coastal resources through technology have resulted in overcrowded and often conflicted spaces. The recent global move towards development of national blue economy strategies further highlights the increased focus on coastal resources to address a broad range of blue growth industries. To address this complexity, we draw on the perspectives of a multi-disciplinary team, utilising two in depth exemplary case studies in New Zealand and within the Myanmar Delta Landscape, to showcase barriers, pathways and actions that facilitate a move from Business as Usual (BAU) to a future aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN International Decade ofOcean Science for Sustainable Development 2021–2030. We provide key recommendations to guide interest groups, and nations globally, towards sustainable utilisation, conservation and preservation of their marine environments in a fair and equitable way, and in collaboration with those who directly rely upon coastal ecosystems.

几个世纪以来，人类一直依赖沿海资源。然而，目前人口的增长和通过技术获得沿海资源的机会增加，导致空间过于拥挤，而且往往是冲突的。最近全球朝着制定国家蓝色经济战略的方向发展，进一步突出了对沿海资源的日益重视，以解决广泛的蓝色增长产业问题。为了解决这一复杂性，我们借鉴了多学科团队的观点，利用新西兰和缅甸三角洲地区的两个深入的典型案例研究，展示了促进从“一切照旧”（BAU）走向与可持续发展目标（SDG）和联合国国际海洋科学促进可持续发展十年一致的未来的障碍、途径和行动发展 2021-2030 年。我们提供关键建议，指导全球利益集团和国家，以公平和公正的方式，并与直接依赖沿海生态系统的国家合作，实现海洋环境的可持续利用、养护和保护。

For this paper, we adopted a combined methodology based on a blue economy actions framework provided under the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021 —2030 Implementation Plan (IOC-UNESCO 2020) and case study approach (Yin 2018), extending on the overarching Future Seas project methods of Nash et al. (upcoming). This involved an interdisciplinary team composed of researchers from different career stages and different disciplinary backgrounds (from biophysical sciences to economics, history, philosophy, social sciences and indigenous knowledge holders) collaborating through a series of workshops and meetings in 2018 and 2019. The group took what is broadly a ‘‘future backwards’’ (orbackcasting; e.g. Nash et al. upcoming) approach. This approach followed three broad steps: (i) identify key drivers that society can influence and that will impact the future of the coastal blue economy; (ii) determine shifts in the intensity and/or direction of these drivers that will lead to two possible futures for 2030; and (iii) identify tangible actions that can act on the drivers and thus support society in moving towards the more desirable of the two futures.

在本文中，我们采用了基于联合国海洋科学促进可持续发展十年（2021-2030）实施计划（IOC-UNESCO 2020）提供的蓝色经济行动框架和案例研究方法（Yin 2018）的组合方法，扩展了 Nash 等人（即将发布）的未来海洋项目方法。这涉及一个跨学科团队，由来自不同职业阶段和不同学科背景（从生物物理科学到经济学、历史学、哲学、社会科学和土著知识持有者）的研究人员组成，通过 2018 年和 2019 年的一系列研讨会和会议进行合作。该小组采取了一种广义上的“未来回溯”（或回溯;例如，Nash 等人，即将版）的方法。该方法遵循三个主要步骤：（i）确定社会能够影响并将影响沿海蓝色经济未来的关键驱动因素;（ii）确定这些驱动力的强度和/或方向的变化，这将导致 2030 年的两个可能的未来;以及（三）确定能够对驱动因素起作用的具体行动，从而支持社会朝着两个未来中更理想的未来迈进。

Conflict will remain an ongoing and increasingly dominant dynamic as environmental and social pressures peak and economic imperatives dominate. This paper highlights that conflflict resolution in different contexts can be used as a transformative energy to help forge the type of change needed, and to create new forms of social interaction and governance. An example is the marine management system for New Zealand which respectfully balances Ma¯ori guardianship and protection of the environment with Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) (Maxwell et al. 2020). However, what is possible in New Zealand, will not be immediately transferable to other coastal nations. The recommendations towards a sustainable future that we identified through the lens of our case studies highlights the need for place-based solutions, adapted to the conditions of each coastal community. For example, whilst the opening up of Myanmar following decades of military rule and isolation creates a unique opportunity for biodiversity conservation—the pace of resource extraction is rapid, and we must act constructively. The New Zealand case study points to strong sovereignty as a key mechanism that underpins secure economic access to sustainable livelihoods. However, in the Myanmar Delta Landscape, where sovereignty is ill-defined, flexibility during the implementation of MPAs in relation to scale and people, along with adaptability is imperative. These are global issues. By confronting issues of concern, such as illegal resource use and the economic structures that prohibit conservation, the possibility of achieving agreements on common ground can be facilitated via targeted fifinancial support mechanisms. This type of resolution practice that directly addresses rather than steers away from contested issues, provides tools and fifinancial incentives to support communities in shifting away from illegal resource extraction. To be globally transformative, these collaborative actions recognise the wealth of existing local and Indigenous knowledge and work with knowledge-based institutions. An approach that supports co-management with a recognition of  bottom up processes, engagement, discussion and empowerment. Ours is a blue economy that  includes wealth distribution mechanisms that support sustainable use, conservation and management of coastal resources. This is a vision that if adopted broadly and championed by the  majority, will lead to profound changes over the next decade.

随着环境和社会压力达到顶峰，经济需求占主导地位，冲突仍将是一个持续不断、日益占主导地位的动态。本文强调，不同背景下的冲突解决可以作为一种变革能量，帮助形成所需的变革类型，并创造新的社会互动和治理形式。一个例子是新西兰的海洋管理系统，该系统通过基于生态系统的管理（EBM）来平衡毛利人对环境的监护和保护（麦克斯韦等人，2020年）。然而，在新西兰可能发生的事情，不会立即转移到其他沿海国家。我们通过案例研究提出的关于可持续未来的建议强调，需要根据每个沿海社区的条件，采取以地方为基础的解决办法。例如，缅甸在经历了几十年的军事统治和孤立之后，对外开放为生物多样性保护创造了一个独特的机会--资源开采的速度很快，我们必须采取建设性的行动。新西兰的案例研究指出，强大的主权是保障经济上获得可持续生计的一个关键机制。然而，在缅甸三角洲地区，主权界定不清，在实施海洋保护区期间，必须在规模和人员方面保持灵活性，沿着有适应性。这些都是全球性问题。通过应对非法资源使用和禁止保护的经济结构等令人关切的问题，可以通过有针对性的财政支持机制促进达成共同立场协议的可能性。这种直接解决而不是回避争议问题的解决方法，为支持社区摆脱非法资源开采提供了工具和激励。为了在全球范围内实现变革，这些合作行动认识到现有的丰富的当地和土著知识，并与知识型机构合作。一种支持共同管理的方法，认可自下而上的流程、参与、讨论和授权。我们的经济是蓝色经济，其中包括支持可持续利用、养护和管理沿海资源的财富分配机制。这是一个愿景，如果被广泛采纳并得到大多数人的拥护，将在未来十年带来深刻的变化。